Phillip Island gets set to decide who will contend for the crown and who will have their loyalties tested as the final stint begins.
From a pivotal weekend at Motegi, the points gap at the top is now back down to just 10 points heading into Phillip Island for the Qatar Airways Australian Motorcycle Grand Prix. A perfectly-timed double from reigning Champion Francesco Bagnaia (Ducati Lenovo Team) was matched by a weekend soaking up the pressure from Jorge Martin (Prima Pramac Racing) to bring the two closer than they have been for some time in the standings, and that 1-2 in the Grand Prix also means the distance back to Enea Bastianini (Ducati Lenovo Team) and Marc Marquez (Gresini Racing MotoGP™) is now almost insurmountable. But almost is only almost.
The last stand for Bastianini and Marquez in 2024 will be made at a place of legends, and as the venue hosts its first Tissot Sprint after weather obliged the timetable switch last year. Neither Bagnaia nor Martin have won at Phillip Island either and now they can afford to lose – but not to falter. Bastianini’s record at the venue, with a best of P5, says the Beast may be looking for less dramatic but equally seismic circumstances as 2023 to keep him in the chase. Marquez, meanwhile, has the best record at the track of anyone who’ll be racing it this weekend. Will we get one more bout of fireworks? Four wins, three further podiums and a Stoner-equalling run of pole positions Down Under near guarantees Marquez will be able to try.
LIGHTING THE FUSE
Fireworks will be the aim for many, however, and many who don’t need to think about points or anything more than the rider ahead. First up, home hero Jack Miller (Red Bull KTM Factory Racing) as he got his elbows out at the front in Motegi before fading slightly to a top ten. Next up, his teammate Brad Binder, who was promised more from Japan than what he left with. But of no rider is that more true than Pedro Acosta (Red Bull GASGAS Tech3) as the rookie took his first MotoGP™ pole position and then took off right near the front at Motegi… before crashing on both Saturday and Sunday. Acosta is sure to come out swinging. 
There are some with notable records at the track too: Maverick Viñales (Aprilia Racing) has often found something special at the Island, and Fabio Quartararo (Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP™) will be an interesting one to watch at an almost polar opposite layout to the home of hard braking at Motegi. The Ducatis will, as ever, be crucial too: Franco Morbidelli (Prima Pramac Racing) will want to put more distance between himself and Marco Bezzecchi (Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team) and teammate Fabio Di Giannantonio, and Alex Marquez (Gresini Racing MotoGP™) will want to be back in the mix after dispatching his Long Lap penalty given for the collision with Joan Mir (Repsol Honda Team) at Motegi.
TURNING THE PAGE
Mir is one who’ll want to do that as another round beckons, having had that home Honda weekend cut short, meanwhile teammate Luca Marini keeps steadily racking up the kilometres and took some more points too. Takaaki Nakagami (IDEMITSU Honda LCR) likewise, despite some friendly fire from his teammate Johann Zarco (CASTROL Honda LCR) on Saturday. Zarco, meanwhile, was the winner of that incredible showdown at the Island last year, and despite the odd drama keeps showing that pace in the inter-Honda battle. He leads it by eight points.
Wanting to leave that battle in the dust, the likes of Alex Rins (Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP™) and Augusto Fernandez (Red Bull GASGAS Tech3) look to move forward and gain more points, and so too does Raul Fernandez (Trackhouse Racing), who will likely have Lorenzo Savadori alongside him in the box again as we await updates on Miguel Oliveira. Then there’s Aleix Espargaro (Aprilia Racing), who is looking for more on his final appearance at the Grand Prix classic venue, having banked more points in Japan than his teammate but not quite had him on pace. Doing so at the Island would be a good sign off.
10 points between two contenders but a mathematical possibility for four, Phillip Island will likely decide who’s gunning for glory at the very top this season. And as excited as we were to see a Sprint at the Island a year ago, imagine just how much more that’s true now. It’s time. See you Down Under!
SHOWTIME
Saturday
Tissot Sprint: 15:00 (UTC +11)
Sunday
Grand Prix: 14:00 (UTC +11)
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