The twists. The turns. The drama. The home of hard braking welcomes the most exciting sport on Earth for another stunning showdown.
Strap in and get ready for more! MotoGP™ heads from hot and humid Indonesia to the cooler climes of the fabulous stop-and-go Mobility Resort Motegi for the Motul Grand Prix of Japan this weekend. As the title fight continues to twist and turn – by Grand Prix, by session and even by minute and second – the pressure is starting to ramp up as the points still on offer reduce day-by-day. Now, a maximum of 185 are in play and the gap at the top is 21, but the deficit below the leading duo of Jorge Martin (Prima Pramac Racing) and Francesco Bagnaia (Ducati Lenovo Team) is now looking more and more sizeable. Are we heading for #PeccovsMartin round two? Or will Motegi host even more drama that Enea Bastianini (Ducati Lenovo Team) and Marc Marquez (Gresini Racing MotoGP™) can take advantage of?
RISK VS REWARD
Martin called his Indonesian GP glory revenge on Sunday, and after crashing out of the GP in 2022, 2023 and in the Tissot Sprint in 2024, it did have a feeling to it of closing the circle. It was an impressive performance under pressure to make a solid statement, and that’s also exactly what he managed at Motegi in 2023 in torrential conditions in that GP race… right on the back of a Sprint win in the dry. He’ll be feeling confident heading to Japan this season.
Bagnaia, meanwhile, has made delivering under pressure his calling card, but Martin isn’t far behind. The problem for both is that some of that pressure has been self-inflicted, and the key to the crown might simply be who can keep it upright for less – but some – reward when needed. Bagnaia definitely did that in Indonesia on Sunday, but a 21-point deficit puts him in the position of needing to pay a little more attention to that risk vs reward. He doesn’t have a margin to play with unless he takes it back or it’s given freely. 
PRESSURE, WHAT PRESSURE?
Then there’s Bastianini and Marquez. They’re now 75 and 78 points behind, respectively, which used to be three Grands Prix. Now, it’s just more than two – so they’re by no means out of it, mathematically. Can they claw their way back in? Bastianini was the fastest on track when he crashed out, seemingly on a charge towards fighting for the win, so his speed is perfectly comparable to the two at the top. After the “controversy” of his move in Misano, fans also lost out on the chance to see if he’d simply do it again. That “what if?” doesn’t count for much, but the bigger deficit could release a lot of pressure and that, in itself, keeps him a very interesting presence at the front.
Marquez, meanwhile, knows he did nothing to cause his own DNF in Lombok, the bike simply said ciao and so did his chance at some good points. But he also knows he didn’t quite have the level to enable him to fight for the win. That step taken with the GP23 is certainly getting him closer but the deficit still there at times. His qualifying – with two crashes in Q2 seeing him set no time – also gave him an uphill struggle, so the first mission for Motegi is clearly to start a little further forward. If he was ever thinking about the points though, he likely won’t be anymore. Just as if he was ever heading out on track without the gloves off, he definitely won’t be anymore.
HOME HEROES
As the title fight heats up at the top, there’s plenty happening everywhere. The Japanese GP will be a special one for Yamaha and Honda, and especially for Takaaki Nakagami (Idemitsu Honda LCR). The Japanese rider takes on a new role as development rider for Honda next season, so it’s his last home GP as a full-time rider. He was the top finishing Honda this season with P11 in Aragon until it got equalled by Joan Mir (Repsol Honda Team) in Emilia-Romagna, with teammate Luca Marini just behind him. It was then subsequently beaten by Johann Zarco (Castrol Honda LCR) in Lombok, as the Frenchman took their first top ten of the year, which is a milestone moment in the fight to move forward again. Home turf – and it’s also their track – will be a huge incentive to keep that momentum rolling.
For Yamaha, there’s the same incentive in front of the Japanese fans, and a little extra at Honda’s home track. There is also a stunning run of form coming in from Fabio Quartararo (Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP™), who is now well-established in the standings ahead of two Aprilias and two KTMs. Perhaps most importantly of all, after two impressive weekends at Misano, the Frenchman was able to take seventh in Indonesia too – and from a second row start. So it’s not Misano, and each new track will only get more interesting. Teammate Alex Rins was back in the points at Mandalika too after his run of illness, and they’ll also have Remy Gardner on track in Japan as a wildcard. What have they got at the stop-and-go Motegi?
HELLO AGAIN
After a blip at Misano, both, Pedro Acosta (Red Bull GASGAS Tech3) was back with a bang at Lombok. A front row start was converted into a podium, and not just any podium. All the attrition happened behind the rookie and he was the only rider with a smidge of resistance for Martin when the lights went out. Motegi is another new challenge he’ll be wanting to grab with both hands, now back ahead of future teammate Brad Binder (Red Bull KTM Factory Racing) as he is, and he also has the “chance” to wrap up the Rookie of the Year title, mathematically speaking. Seems a safe bet.
Maverick Viñales (Aprilia Racing) was also still in that better postcode at Mandalika. Aprilia had a very tough run at the first round at Misano, but Viñales has now taken two consecutive top sixes at Emilia-Romagna and Lombok as he starts to turn that around. Marco Bezzecchi (Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team) also kept his roll going in Indonesia, doubling down on his impressive momentum following those mid-season struggles. He impressed at Misano and, like Quartararo, underlined it wasn’t a one-track pony with more pace at Mandalika. Franco Morbidelli (Prima Pramac Racing) similarly, after his injury struggles at the start of the season he’s now a solid consistent scorer and arrives in Japan from two GP race top fives.
LOOKING FOR THE GROOVE
Binder leads the list of riders wanting to hit back, especially against Acosta, and Aleix Espargaro (Aprilia Racing) would also like a little more to take the fight to Viñales. In the Aprilia ranks though more than anyone it’s Raul Fernandez (Trackhouse Racing) looking for a big step forward. He took some points in Mandalika and Emilia-Romagna, but before that hadn’t scored since Germany. This weekend he’ll also have Lorenzo Savadori alongside in the box, with teammate Miguel Oliveira sidelined through injury.
Alex Marquez (Gresini Racing MotoGP™) has a stunning record at Motegi through the classes and will hope for a turnaround after a tough Indonesia that saw him take no points, and Fabio Di Giannantonio (Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team) took one but is having a tougher run as he also considers surgery on his shoulder. Jack Miller (Red Bull KTM Factory Racing), meanwhile, will expect more at a venue where he stunned in 2022 – simply checking out at the front – and with the rumours around Augusto Fernandez’ (Red Bull GASGAS Tech3) future being relevant to the Japanese market, that could be something to look out for.
There have been so many twists and turns so far this season, there surely must be a few more waiting in the wings. Who can keep their cool before the final flyaways? We’ll find out this weekend!
SHOWTIME
Saturday
Tissot Sprint: 15:00 (UTC +9)
Sunday
Grand Prix: 14:00 (UTC +9)
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