#TheRematch: it all comes down to this

Martin walks the tightrope towards glory, Bagnaia goes all-in: #TheRematch reaches its conclusion in Catalonia.

And so it all comes down to this. After 19 Grands Prix across the world, the paddock returns to the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya for the Motul Solidarity Grand Prix of Barcelona – an event with a purpose beyond the pure sporting, and one where the highest sporting accolade in MotoGP™ will be on the table. By the end of play on Sunday, we know we will have a World Champion, and it could even be before. We also know it will be Jorge Martin (Prima Pramac Racing) or Francesco Bagnaia (Ducati Lenovo Team) lifting the crown. But which? That remains to be decided as #TheRematch reaches its conclusion.

THE CONTENDERS
Betting against Martin – with his 24-point advantage and impressive pace throughout the calendar and the conditions – is a longer shot. The #89 has seldom put a foot wrong in the past few weeks and looks like a different bet than this time last year. All the tiny details add up to a picture of a rider on the verge of sealing the deal. But his pace at the earlier Catalan GP wasn’t on a par with his key rival, Bagnaia, and nothing is truly over until it’s over. Millimetres separate glory from gravel in MotoGP™ and that line is even harder to walk when the moment truly has arrived.

For Bagnaia, meanwhile, the tightrope is purely on track. There’s no mental maths to do and no question about what he has to put on the table. It’s a binary choice: all-in or lose by default. And in those situations, something seems to unlock within the reigning Champion. “I must, therefore I shall”. Even in the Sprint in Sepang, the must was not winning, the must was taking the risk. So he did. Then, it didn’t pay off. On a different Saturday and at a different venue, maybe it will. With different pace from the rivals around them, maybe it will. With the tightrope for the rider he’s chasing now giving Martin a direct eyeline to the trophy, maybe it will.

“It’s complicated”
There are two usual suspects that Martin and Bagnaia will be eyeing this weekend. In the purple corner, Martin will be hoping both Marc Marquez (Gresini Racing MotoGP™) and Enea Bastianini (Ducati Lenovo Team) are unable to keep tabs on the title-contending duo. A repeat of Malaysia. Bastianini finished the race a little off the win and Marquez also admitted that he simply didn’t have the pace to get involved in the spellbinding battle. And then the #93 crashed, too.

Having Marquez and Bastianini out of the equation in both the Sprint and race is the dream scenario for Martin. Conversely, that would be a nightmare for Bagnaia. “I need Enea,” was the fact of it, confirmed by Pecco in the post-race Press Conference in Malaysia. Not for team orders, simply to take points away from Martin. The #1 could also do with Marquez doing the same. But unlike Bastianini, a fast and firing #93 could also work against Pecco. This dynamic between the Catalan GP top four from May will be a fascinating watch on Friday afternoon and in qualifying before we even get to showtime…

THE SHOWDOWN FOR FIFTH
There may be far more protagonists to contend with too. Pedro Acosta (Red Bull GASGAS Tech3) was a Sprint podium finisher in Barcelona and the rookie will be ravenous for a podium return before the year is out. Plus, there’s a good inter-manufacturer fight for P5 between the Spaniard and Brad Binder (Red Bull KTM Factory Racing). It’s 209 points vs 206 in favour of Acosta, so the South African – who hasn’t stood on a Sunday rostrum since Qatar – will be hunting podium form after a tough end to his Malaysian GP.

There’s another rider in the P5 picture too. Although it’s an outside chance, Maverick Viñales’ last weekend as an Aprilia Racing could see Top Gun end the year with the ‘best of the rest’ accolade before he switches his allegiances to the machines he’s hoping to beat this weekend. 20 points split Acosta, Binder and Viñales, so that’s a secondary scrap to keep our eyes on.

LOYALTIES TO THE TEST
Elsewhere, Alex Marquez (Gresini Racing MotoGP™) will be aiming to back up his strong Sepang outing with a solid end-of-season ride on home turf. Fellow GP23 rider, Marco Bezzecchi (Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team), didn’t enjoy the same success in Sepang and will be hoping his final race under the VR46 and Ducati umbrella springs greater results. Time will tell. And we know that trusted Ducati Test Rider, Michele Pirro, will take over Fabio Di Giannantonio’s reigns for the final round of the season, which can cause a little Q2 stress for the rest on occasion.

You can throw in Franco Morbidelli as a serious threat too. Prima Pramac Racing could be seeking aid from the Italian if Martin ends up needing it, but can Morbidelli – who was running P4 before crashing in Sepang – bring himself into the reckoning? And where will the VR46 Academy members’ loyalties lie if a situation arises? Another element to keep tabs on…

CHAPEAU!
meanwhile, keeping tabs on the front was the name of the Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP™ game in Malaysia. Fabio Quartararo’s Sprint P5 and Sunday P6 were both season PBs, and they weren’t delivered by luck. In fact, bad luck – with the Frenchman caught in that early crash on Sunday – almost worked against them. Alex Rins also carved out his best race result of the year with a P8, so can the Iwata factory back it up with more success in the curtain closer? It’s been a track where they’ve seen lots of speed and success before.

SWAN SONGS
One rider who will be seeking a repeat performance from earlier in the year is the rider sat on the other side of the box to Viñales – Aleix Espargaro. The Catalan GP Sprint King is set for his final race as a full-time MotoGP™ rider, and although noteworthy results have been hard to find in recent weeks, Espargaro loves the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya. And, as we know, if Espargaro is in a position to do so, the #41 will likely be out to lend his close friend Martin a hand where possible…

The Catalan GP was Raul Fernandez’s (Trackhouse Racing MotoGP™) standout weekend of 2024 too. Leading the Sprint and collecting a P6 would go down nicely once more for the Spaniard on a track that traditionally suits the RS-GP, after it’s been a tougher run of late. Fernandez and Trackhouse will also welcome back Miguel Oliveira after the Portuguese star missed the last five rounds through injury. Can the #88 enjoy his final time back on the Aprilia before a new adventure awaits?

Jack Miller (Red Bull KTM Factory Racing) will be keen to put his Malaysian GP crash behind him on his farewell weekend with KTM, while the Australian’s Pierer Mobility Group stablemate, Augusto Fernandez (Red Bull GASGAS Tech3), sets his sights on another positive weekend before a new adventure awaits the 2022 Moto2™ World Champion.

In the HRC camp, Johann Zarco (CASTROL Honda LCR) held the torch in Malaysia as the Frenchman impressed again, but P11 isn’t what he – nor Honda – come racing for. Can he and the Repsol Hondas of Joan Mir and Luca Marini grind out improvements? They have steadily been doing that throughout the season. And how will Takaaki Nakagami (IDEMITSU Honda LCR) fare as the Japanese star bows out of full-time MotoGP™ racing? It will be a swansong for him too, and likely an emotional one.

For many it’s the end of an era. For others it’s chance to sign off on a high and get locked into a new challenge – with the test on Tuesday seeing so many changes. For the 2024 Championship, it’s one final weekend that will decide the destination of the crown and maybe the #1 plate too. Because Martin is another moving to pastures new.

Before all that, it’s 24 points, two riders… and 37 on the line. Tune in as the most exciting sport on earth goes #RacingForValencia and puts on one final show of the season!

SHOWTIME
Saturday
Tissot Sprint: 15:00 (UTC +1)
Sunday
Grand Prix: 14:00 (UTC +1)

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