Two contenders, two Grands Prix, and a match point on the line: the title fight could hit boiling point in Malaysia.

A maximum 666 points have gone on offer so far in 2024, and after all the thrills, spills and incredible spectacles we’ve enjoyed from the first 18 Grands Prix, just 17 of them separate reigning Champion Francesco Bagnaia (Ducati Lenovo Team) from the Championship summit occupied by Jorge Martin (Prima Pramac Racing). A summit the #89 has held for much of the season come rain, shine, luck, or a lack of it, and a summit he’ll protect with everything he has. We’re about to find out just how much that really is – and exactly what kind of answer Bagnaia has for him.

THE REMATCH
Thailand was quite a time for Bagnaia to take his first ever wet MotoGP™ win and with it make a huge statement that turned the tide on what had started to seem inevitable on Saturday. But the roll of the dice was necessary for the rider on the chase, and it was Martin left to debate risk vs reward inside his own head. 22 points to play with could have become much more, or even a three-point deficit had he slid out. He also passed the test with flying colours to make his own statement.

So now, here we are: Petronas Sepang International Circuit. Where the form book says Bagnaia should have the advantage, but the pace of late – and the standings – ticks it back in favour of Martin. Once again, both know exactly what’s on the line. Bagnaia’s choice is binary: finish ahead of Martin or continue to lose ground. Martin’s choice is another complex set of calculations, and one that takes place in the knowledge that the Tissot Sprint could tee up his first Championship point on Sunday. Oh, also…

THE RIVALS
There are likely two main concerns for the two contenders, and they’re each fascinating in their own way. As ever, Marc Marquez (Gresini Racing MotoGP™) looms large. And he’s on record saying he’d rather Bagnaia kept the number 1 – seemingly and ostensibly because he’d like to take it back on equal terms next year. He’s also said he knows his position, aka often being at the front, could be a deciding factor. Simply by virtue of him being at the front.

The virtue of being at the front is likely something set to be enjoyed by Bagnaia’s teammate Enea Bastianini too. Last year, as the two contenders headed wide at Turn 1, focused on each other and nothing else, the Beast took the lead – and he didn’t look back. He didn’t need to, because there was no one there. Rewinding one more year though, he duelled Bagnaia and within certain limits not on show in Emilia-Romagna this year. It will be interesting to see if the Gresini pitboard says “P2 ok” for a Marquez in 2024 like it did for Bastianini in 2022. Ducati have cards to play. Marc Marquez is joining the factory team. Martin is leaving for Aprilia. But the constructors’ and teams’ titles are already won… and Bastianini is leaving for KTM.

THE CHALLENGERS
Alex Marquez (Gresini Racing MotoGP™) had a stunner at Sepang last season and will likely not hold back. Will he be told to? Marco Bezzecchi (Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team) has all sorts to balance too, and Franco Morbidelli (Prima Pramac Racing) arguably even more. And then there are those who aren’t even content with mixing it up on track and ask for a little more press conference spice to go with it, aka Pedro Acosta (Red Bull GASGAS Tech3).

It’s no mean feat taking a MotoGP™ podium in your rookie season, but even less so when it’s a Buriram buckaroo and your first soaking wet premier class showdown. Acosta vs first Brad Binder and then his Red Bull KTM Factory Racing teammate Jack Miller was the fire the finale needed in Thailand, and Acosta kept it absolutely lit. So did the 33 and 43. They are looking to do that all again, and more, every time the lights go out, and none of their pitboards will have anything to add.

Fabio Quartararo (Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP™) was also a big presence at Sepang last season, and a big presence at Buriram this year in qualifying and on Sunday before that tap from Morbidelli. The GP24s, Marc Marquez and those able to home in on the #93 on the same machinery seem to have more at the minute, but there is arguably no one doing more with what they have on the grid right now than El Diablo. He’ll be sure to try and do it again. Maverick Viñales (Aprilia Racing), meanwhile, continues to lead the charge for Aprilia too – with some ups and downs but outpacing the rest on his machinery in that tight fight behind the very front group.

THE SEEKERS
There are plenty of performances that remain noteworthy on the chase too. Johann Zarco (CASTROL Honda LCR) took Honda’s best result of the season so far in Buriram, and it was a solid weekend in terms of points for the factory as all bikes scored on Sunday – despite Joan Mir (Repsol Honda Team)’s high profile tangle with Marc Marquez, the #36 took a point. Luca Marini (Repsol Honda Team) kept plenty of positives from Australia too, and Takaaki Nakagami (IDEMITSU Honda LCR) wasn’t far off the Italian.

Some more looking to move forward and cut their own deficits are the likes of Aleix Espargaro (Aprilia Racing) and Raul Fernandez (Trackhouse Racing), who will share the box with test rider Lorenzo Savadori again, as well as Alex Rins (Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP™) and Augusto Fernandez (Red Bull GASGAS Tech3).

THE MANIAC
Then there’s Andrea Iannone. The Maniac is back as a replacement for Fabio Di Giannantonio at Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team. What can we expect from him? There’s a lot a human can learn, suffer, heal, win, lose, rediscover and pay for in five years. In the sport, the bikes have changed, the grid has changed, and the format has changed. His CV has too, now sporting a WorldSBK win. Many MotoGP™ fans will only hope that one thing hasn’t changed at all: the innate ability to entertain, whichever way it splits opinion.

That’s one thing we can near promise from the Petronas Grand Prix of Malaysia at the fittingly-named Petronas Sepang International Circuit. It’s going to be a weekend that goes down in the history books one way or another, so don’t miss a second of what could be a championship-deciding showdown. We don’t call it the most exciting sport on earth for nothing.

SHOWTIME
Saturday
Tissot Sprint: 15:00 (UTC +8)
Sunday
Grand Prix: 15:00 (UTC +8)

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